Iraqi Deaths

Everyday conflict in Iraq began with the 2003 U.S. invasion to overthrow Saddam Hussein. The violence, which ranges from acts of terrorism by religious fundamentalists and anti-government groups to honor killings by families, is now called a civil war. The hundreds of thousands of American troops stationed in Iraq are responsible for “maintaining security.” The number of people dying has increased with each passing year from 2.5 deaths per 1000 people during the first year, to 6 deaths per 1000 people during the second year, to 15 deaths per 1000 people this past year. These statistics totaled estimate that 650,000 Iraqis have died as a result of the U.S. invasion.1

Although certain parts of Iraq experience periods of relative peace, mayhem ebbs and flows throughout the country. There is no untouchable safe-haven where citizens can seek refuge. Even in areas that are not subject to sectarian violence poverty is so extreme that depression and its side effects cause mortal danger. A recent New York Times article, “Iraqi Militants Strike On U.S. Post Near Baghdad,” began by recounting the story of the outpost and continued by describing the chaos throughout the country. The eleventh and twelfth paragraphs of the article read:

A family of thirteen was killed on the road leading to Falluja, about 12 miles northwest of Bagdad, because its members were from a tribe known to oppose Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, witnesses said.

The family, including an elderly woman and two small boys, was dragged out of a minibus, lined up and shot. The bodies remained on the highway for hours because people were afraid they would be ambushed if they collected the dead...2



This type of killing has become rather routine. Gunshot is identified overwhelmingly as the most common cause of death.3Saad Eskander, Director of the Iraq National Library and Archive posts his journal on The British Library’s website. His description of Iraq matches the one in The New York Times article. Mr. Eskander's workers, and their family members, are dying daily. He constantly fears for his life:

.


...On Wednesday, I received more bad news. A terrorist group attacked the house of one of my staff. As a result, he and one of his sons (a university student) were injured, while the other son (a doctor) was murdered.

On the same day, I met Ali's brothers and talked about his pension, and how the LNA could support his wife and two sons. The brothers gave some of information about the assassination of their brother. They said that Ali was in his car, when another blocked his way, after he had taken his younger sister to her university. The assassins were 4 men, who ordered Ali to get out of his car. After leaving his car, Ali discovered the 4 men were armed with guns and that they intended on killing him. Ali was a brave person, and had well-built body. He attacked the 4 assassins, succeeding in bringing down two of them. Unfortunately, one the assassins shot hem in the leg. After Ali fell on the ground, the assassins fired at his head, chest and stomach. Ali left on the pavement bleeding until he died. The street, the scene of the crime, was very busy that morning. But no one dare to intervene. It is highly likely that the assassins are members of one the militias that penetrated the security forces.

Our main concern now is the snipers. There are two areas, which the snipers use to kill innocent people at random....4

The increasingly popular, second most common cause of death after shooting is bombing. Car bombs are very frequent. To make an IED, improvised explosive device, TNT is generally used in combination with metal particles like steel balls. The explosive is then detonated by an electric charge activated remotely by a cellular phone, or through a switch activated by the suicide bomber carrying the charge.

Bombing is particularly psychologically damaging in its gruesome effects. There have been two instances reported by the English-language media in which American soldiers shot unarmed civilian parents in front of their children because they were afraid the vehicle that the family was traveling in was a car bomb.5 These incidents were only reported because media members happened to be present at each of these shootings. Therefore, it is likely that many similar faux pas have occurred. These kinds of baseless, fear-driven killings are the results from the type of war we are fighting. People can be blown to bits at any moment. Fear feeds on itself other more and more anger death and paranoia.

An unbiased, scientific description of what happens to human bodies during a typical bombing comes from the Israeli Medical Association Journal’s article on medical responses to terrorist attacks that use explosives. In plain English it explains that injuries from explosive can happen from three waves of destruction that a bomb causes. The first wave is pressure that passes through the body. If the pressure is too high it can cause your organs with low elasticity to explode. You can also get air-bubbles in your blood stream, which are often deadly. It is also common for the blast wave to blow out your eardrums. Rarely, your lenses will get dislocated. The second wave is composed of projectiles “such as nails and metal balls, embedded in the explosive. These metal objects gain energy from the blast and behave in flight according to ballistics rules– some will act as high velocity missiles and others as low velocity missiles, and their injury pattern will reflect their velocity and shape. Indeed different injury patterns have been defined for spherical missiles, nails and screws....” The third wave is the one that generally causes limb amputation. It moves your body and is often the most harmful when you run into stationary objects. The last form of injury comes from the fire from the explosion. It ranges from first to third degree burns.6

A vivid description of the feeling of Iraq after a bombing is given by Anthony Shadid who writes for The Washington Post, Associated Press and The Boston Globe.



Moving through the blood soaked city, I tried to do my job, but at every turn, I was repulsed, overwhelmed with a desire to leave this place and, for that matter, the country itself. I walked past a finger and a piece of scalp with knotted, matted hair; a chunk of brain had been tossed into a pot of still steaming rice. (The kettle was considered cleaner than the ground.)...7




Many people have criticized the study I trust as an estimator of the number of deaths, The Human Cost of War in Iraq, as inaccurate because of its survey method. The study utilized the cluster survey method, “a method recommended for measuring deaths in conflict”8, and the trusted method of polling in any recent political science or psychology book I have come across. The Human Cost of War in Iraq, was conducted by Johns Hopkins University, Al Mustansiyiria University and Massachusetts Institute of Technology. As the Medical Association for Prevention of War says, “the study was undertaken by respected researchers and assisted by one of the world's foremost biostatisticians. Its methodology is sound and its conclusions should be taken seriously.”9 Moreover, mathematically the study tested its own margin for error; it is 95 percent certain that between 426,369 and 793,663 Iraqi deaths have occurred.10

The study’s greatest critics champion the large disparities between the 650,000 dead estimated by The Human Cost of War and the 60,000 dead estimated by other critical inspectors. However, there are obvious explanations for these disparities. The most prominent counter-study has been conducted by iraqbodycount.org. It only counts people identified as civilians (people who were never party of any Iraqi army or police force).The Human Cost of War in Iraq includes those people. Moreover, iraqbodycount.org only counts deaths reported by the media. It proudly announces “The project relies on the professional rigour of the approved reporting agencies.” It seems a bit strange for them to be relying on the “professional rigour” of reporting agencies while most of the journalists in Iraq are voluntarily and risk their lives every time they travel outside their fortified compounds, and while no agency is perfectly secure, and no family knows which officials they can trust. 11








(Footnotes)

1Burnham, G., Doocy, S, et al. “The Human Cost of War in Iraq: A Mortality Study, 2002-2006". CNN.com. October 11, 2006. p. 6

2Santora, Mark.“Iraqi Militants Strike On U.S. Post Near Baghdad,” The New York Times. February 20 2007 p.A8

3Burnham, G., Doocy, S, et al. “The Human Cost of War in Iraq: A Mortality Study, 2002-2006". CNN.com. October 11, 2006. p. 9

4http://www.bl.uk/iraqdiary12.html

5The shooting in Sadr city on March 10, 2006 and the shooting in Tal Afar on January 18, 2005.


6Kluger, Yoram. “Bomb Explosions in Acts of Terrorism- Detonantion, Wound Ballistics, Triage and Medical Concerns.” Israeli Medical Association Journal. April 2003.

7Shadid, Anthony. As Night Draws Near. Henry Holt LLC., New York, 2005. p. 356

8G. Burnham, S. Doocy, et al. “The Human Cost of War in Iraq: A Mortality Study, 2002-2006". CNN.com. October 11, 2006. p.3

9http://www.mapw.org.au/

10 This figure is calculated using confidence intervals. G. Burnham, S. Doocy, et al. “The Human Cost of War in Iraq: A Mortality Study, 2002-2006". CNN.com. October 11, 2006. p.12


11www.cjr.org